Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?
Vol $6.4K today · $276.7K total
Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by December 31, 2026?
Vol $310 today · $800 total
Kalshi is 2 points higher than Polymarket (5% vs 3%). Polymarket trades about 20.8× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 3% | 5% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | +2.0 pt |
| Volume today | $6.4K | $310 |
| Total volume | $276.7K | $800 |
| Liquidity | $40.6K | — |
| Open interest | — | $792 |
| Resolves | 65d | 65d |
| Tracked for | 42 hours | 18 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Kalshi
If the Federal Open Market Committee announces a reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate at least once after market Issuance and on or before December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.