Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?
Polymarket traders are currently pricing "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?" at a 3% probability, roughly flat over the last 16h (0 point change).
- Volume (24h)
- $6.4K
- Total volume
- $276.7K
- Liquidity
- $40.6K
- All-time range
- 3% – 3%
- Our history
- 38 hours
- Resolves
- 65d
How this resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Resolution rules as published by Polymarket — MeleeMarkets doesn't set or interpret these, we just mirror them.
Odds are mirrored from Polymarket's public market data and may lag the live order book slightly. Informational only — not financial advice. How we source data.