Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?
Vol $28.7K today · $1.8M total
Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by December 31, 2027?
Vol $0 today · $1.3K total
Kalshi is 41 points higher than Polymarket (50% vs 9%).
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 9% | 50% |
| Change (24h) | +0.5 pt | +0.0 pt |
| Volume today | $28.7K | $0 |
| Total volume | $1.8M | $1.3K |
| Liquidity | $593.2K | — |
| Open interest | — | $782 |
| Resolves | 15mo | 15mo |
| Tracked for | 10 days | 13 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents Anthropic. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
If the Federal Open Market Committee announces a reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate at least once after market Issuance and on or before December 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.