Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?
Vol $4.6K today · $272K total
Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by December 31, 2026?
Vol $309 today · $800 total
Polymarket is 91 points higher than Kalshi (96% vs 5%). Polymarket trades about 14.9× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 96% | 5% |
| Change (24h) | -2.1 pt | +2.0 pt |
| Volume today | $4.6K | $309 |
| Total volume | $272K | $800 |
| Liquidity | $6K | — |
| Open interest | — | $792 |
| Resolves | 65d | 65d |
| Tracked for | 22 hours | 18 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if predict.fun officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from predict.fun (https://predict.fun/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Kalshi
If the Federal Open Market Committee announces a reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate at least once after market Issuance and on or before December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.