Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket traders are currently pricing "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" at a 16% probability, roughly flat over the last 23h (0 point change).
- Volume (24h)
- $119.6K
- Total volume
- $74.4M
- Liquidity
- $493.4K
- All-time range
- 16% – 19%
- Our history
- 8 days
- Resolves
- 76d
How this resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Resolution rules as published by Polymarket — MeleeMarkets doesn't set or interpret these, we just mirror them.
Odds are mirrored from Polymarket's public market data and may lag the live order book slightly. Informational only — not financial advice. How we source data.