Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
Polymarket traders are currently pricing "Will Russia invade another country in 2026?" at a 3% probability, roughly flat over the last 1h (0 point change).
- Volume (24h)
- $3.3K
- Total volume
- $659.3K
- Liquidity
- $63.5K
- Our history
- 5 hours
- Resolves
- 56d
How this resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution rules as published by Polymarket — MeleeMarkets doesn't set or interpret these, we just mirror them.
Odds are mirrored from Polymarket's public market data and may lag the live order book slightly. Informational only — not financial advice. How we source data.