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Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?

Resolves Oct 26, 2026

100%chance
– 0.2pt over 4h
0%50%100%Oct 26Oct 26

Polymarket traders are currently pricing "Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?" at a 100% probability, roughly flat over the last 4h (+0.2 point change).

Volume (24h)
$54.7K
Total volume
$140.4K
Liquidity
$23.5K
All-time range
100% – 100%
Our history
28 hours

How this resolves

The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from voters abroad, meaning votes cast outside Brazil and reported by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under “Exterior”.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won abroad. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Resolution rules as published by Polymarket — MeleeMarkets doesn't set or interpret these, we just mirror them.

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Odds are mirrored from Polymarket's public market data and may lag the live order book slightly. Informational only — not financial advice. How we source data.

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