Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Polymarket traders are currently pricing "Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?" at a 8% probability, roughly flat over the last 5h (0 point change).
- Volume (24h)
- $56.5K
- Total volume
- $3.8M
- Liquidity
- $199.5K
- Our history
- 26 hours
- Resolves
- 14mo
How this resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution rules as published by Polymarket — MeleeMarkets doesn't set or interpret these, we just mirror them.
Odds are mirrored from Polymarket's public market data and may lag the live order book slightly. Informational only — not financial advice. How we source data.