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Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30?

Resolves Dec 1, 2026

19%chance
▼ 46.0pt over 9d
0%50%100%Oct 10Oct 19

Polymarket traders are currently pricing "Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30?" at a 19% probability, down over the last 9d (-46 point change).

Volume (24h)
$486
Total volume
$24.4K
Liquidity
$16.4K
All-time range
19% – 65%
Our history
10 days
Resolves
43d

How this resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Perim Island is no longer under Houthi control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

“The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. “Perim Island” refers to Perim (Mayyun) Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Yemen.

“No longer under the control of the Houthis” means that the Houthis no longer exercise primary military control over Perim Island, and another state, occupying force, the internationally recognized government of Yemen, or an internationally backed authority has established control over the island.

Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Houthi activity will not qualify on their own.

An announcement, threat, or claim that the Houthis have lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.

If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.

If control over Perim Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution rules as published by Polymarket — MeleeMarkets doesn't set or interpret these, we just mirror them.

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It is at 19% now. Pick the number you care about.

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Odds are mirrored from Polymarket's public market data and may lag the live order book slightly. Informational only — not financial advice. How we source data.

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