Kalshi

Manned Starship mission to Mars before 2030?

Resolves Jan 1, 2030

16%chance

▲ 1.5pt over 30h

Kalshi traders are currently pricing "Manned Starship mission to Mars before 2030?" at a 16% probability, up over the last 30h (+1.5 point change).

Volume (24h): $141
Total volume: $54.6K
Liquidity: $0
Open interest: $10K
All-time range: 12% – 16%
Our history: 9 days
Resolves: 39mo

How this resolves

If SpaceX launches a manned Starship mission to Mars by Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution rules as published by Kalshi — MeleeMarkets doesn't set or interpret these, we just mirror them.

Trade on Kalshi ↗ Compare

Alert me when the odds move

It is at 16% now. Pick the number you care about.

Embed these odds on your site

Paste this where you want the card. It updates by itself and links back here. Add &theme=dark to the address for a dark card.

<iframe src="https://meleemarkets.com/embed.php?m=6359" width="340" height="200" style="border:0;border-radius:16px;max-width:100%" loading="lazy" title="Live odds: Manned Starship mission to Mars before 2030?"></iframe>

Odds are mirrored from Kalshi's public market data and may lag the live order book slightly. Informational only — not financial advice. How we source data.

View all

Polymarket

Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?

Vol $582.5K today · $6.5M total

100% – 0.0pt

Polymarket

Plague pandemic in 2026?

Vol $78.5K today · $493.6K total · resolves in 74d

2% ▼ 0.8pt

Manned Starship mission to Mars before 2030?

How this resolves

What do you think?

More Other markets