Kalshi Politics

Will Wales announce an independence referendum before 2030?

Resolves Jan 1, 2030

28%chance

– 0.5pt over 40h

Kalshi traders are currently pricing "Will Wales announce an independence referendum before 2030?" at a 28% probability, roughly flat over the last 40h (+0.5 point change).

Volume (24h): $0
Total volume: $803
Liquidity: $0
Open interest: $7
All-time range: 22% – 28%
Our history: 10 days
Resolves: 39mo

How this resolves

If Wales agrees to or announces a formal decision by the UK Government, UK Parliament, or a legally authorized Welsh authority to hold a referendum on Welsh independence after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution rules as published by Kalshi — MeleeMarkets doesn't set or interpret these, we just mirror them.

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Odds are mirrored from Kalshi's public market data and may lag the live order book slightly. Informational only — not financial advice. How we source data.

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