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Kalshi Politics

Will the UK agree to or announce a decision not to transfer sovereignty over Diego Garcia to Mauritius before Dec 1, 2026?

Resolves Dec 1, 2026

4%chance
– 0.5pt over 2d
0%50%100%Oct 9Oct 19

Kalshi traders are currently pricing "Will the UK agree to or announce a decision not to transfer sovereignty over Diego Garcia to Mauritius before Dec 1, 2026?" at a 4% probability, roughly flat over the last 2d (-0.5 point change).

Volume (24h)
$0
Total volume
$2.1K
Liquidity
$0
Open interest
$1.6K
All-time range
3% – 15%
Our history
10 days
Resolves
42d

How this resolves

If the UK agrees to or announces a decision not to transfer sovereignty over Diego Garcia to Mauritius before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution rules as published by Kalshi — MeleeMarkets doesn't set or interpret these, we just mirror them.

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It is at 4% now. Pick the number you care about.

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Odds are mirrored from Kalshi's public market data and may lag the live order book slightly. Informational only — not financial advice. How we source data.

What do you think?

A reader poll, separate from the market odds above.

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