Kalshi Politics

Will Northern Ireland confirm a reunification referendum before 2030?

Resolves Jan 1, 2030

13%chance

– 0.5pt over 39h

Kalshi traders are currently pricing "Will Northern Ireland confirm a reunification referendum before 2030?" at a 13% probability, roughly flat over the last 39h (-0.5 point change).

Volume (24h): $60
Total volume: $4.1K
Liquidity: $0
Open interest: $1.2K
All-time range: 10% – 15%
Our history: 10 days
Resolves: 39mo

How this resolves

If Northern Ireland agrees to or announces a formal decision by the UK Secretary of State for Northern Ireland to hold a border poll on Irish reunification before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution rules as published by Kalshi — MeleeMarkets doesn't set or interpret these, we just mirror them.

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Odds are mirrored from Kalshi's public market data and may lag the live order book slightly. Informational only — not financial advice. How we source data.

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