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Kalshi Politics

Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2028?

Resolves Jan 1, 2028

52%chance
▲ 1.0pt over 2d
0%50%100%Oct 9Oct 19

Kalshi traders are currently pricing "Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2028?" at a 52% probability, up over the last 2d (+1 point change).

Volume (24h)
$0
Total volume
$1.5K
Liquidity
$0
Open interest
$903
All-time range
49% – 74%
Our history
10 days
Resolves
15mo

How this resolves

If Friedrich Merz has either officially announced their intention to leave as Chancellor of Germany or has actually left as Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution rules as published by Kalshi — MeleeMarkets doesn't set or interpret these, we just mirror them.

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It is at 52% now. Pick the number you care about.

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Odds are mirrored from Kalshi's public market data and may lag the live order book slightly. Informational only — not financial advice. How we source data.

What do you think?

A reader poll, separate from the market odds above.

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