Kalshi Politics

Will a Republican win in 2028 AND the 2029 S&P 500 change be 20% or above?

Resolves Dec 31, 2029

8%chance

▲ 0.7pt over 23h

Kalshi traders are currently pricing "Will a Republican win in 2028 AND the 2029 S&P 500 change be 20% or above?" at a 8% probability, up over the last 23h (+0.7 point change).

Volume (24h): $580
Total volume: $580
Liquidity: $0
Open interest: $580
All-time range: 7% – 50%
Our history: 30 hours
Resolves: 38mo

How this resolves

If ALL of the following occur: Party: Republican, S&P 500 change: 20% or above, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution rules as published by Kalshi — MeleeMarkets doesn't set or interpret these, we just mirror them.

Trade on Kalshi ↗ Compare

Alert me when the odds move

It is at 8% now. Pick the number you care about.

Embed these odds on your site

Paste this where you want the card. It updates by itself and links back here. Add &theme=dark to the address for a dark card.

<iframe src="https://meleemarkets.com/embed.php?m=468688" width="340" height="200" style="border:0;border-radius:16px;max-width:100%" loading="lazy" title="Live odds: Will a Republican win in 2028 AND the 2029 S&amp;P 500 change be 20% or a…"></iframe>

Odds are mirrored from Kalshi's public market data and may lag the live order book slightly. Informational only — not financial advice. How we source data.

View all

Kalshi Politics

Will Hakeem Jeffries be the next Speaker of the House?

Vol $56.2K today · $798.3K total · resolves in 50mo

94% ▼ 0.8pt

Kalshi Politics

Will Ayanna Pressley be the next Speaker of the House?

Vol $33K today · $33K total · resolves in 50mo

5% ▼ 45.0pt

Will a Republican win in 2028 AND the 2029 S&P 500 change be 20% or above?

How this resolves

What do you think?

More Politics markets