Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Ernesto Maria Ruffini become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?
Vol $0 today · $689 total
Will Yolanda Díaz be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
Vol $43.8K today · $170.5K total
Kalshi is 3 points higher than Polymarket (3% vs 0%). They resolve on different dates (Dec 22 vs Apr 1), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 3% | 0% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | -0.1 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $43.8K |
| Total volume | $689 | $170.5K |
| Liquidity | — | $60.5K |
| Open interest | $645 | — |
| Resolves | 27mo | 18mo |
| Tracked for | 10 days | 10 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If Ernesto Maria Ruffini becomes Prime Minister of Italy as a result of government formation following the next Italian general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Dec 22, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.