Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2028?
Vol $0 today · $2.9K total
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?
Vol $30.9K today · $304.6K total
Kalshi is 81 points higher than Polymarket (97% vs 17%).
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 97% | 17% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | +0.0 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $30.9K |
| Total volume | $2.9K | $304.6K |
| Liquidity | — | $152.7K |
| Open interest | $1.9K | — |
| Resolves | 27mo | 27mo |
| Tracked for | 12 days | 9 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If the Federal Reserve announces an increase in the target range or target level for the federal funds rate after market Issuance and on or before Dec 31, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents Anthropic. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.