Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026?
Vol $5.9K today · $101.7K total
Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026?
Vol $96.6K today · $743K total
Kalshi is 70 points higher than Polymarket (78% vs 9%). Polymarket trades about 16.2× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 78% | 9% |
| Change (24h) | -3.5 pt | +2.5 pt |
| Volume today | $5.9K | $96.6K |
| Total volume | $101.7K | $743K |
| Liquidity | — | $89.8K |
| Open interest | $49K | — |
| Resolves | 72d | 72d |
| Tracked for | 12 days | 12 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If the Federal Reserve announces an increase in the target range or target level for the federal funds rate after market Issuance and on or before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “Low” prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.