MeleeMarkets Live
Kalshi Economy

Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026?

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

82%chance
▲ 3.5pt over 33h
0%50%100%Oct 9Oct 19

Kalshi traders are currently pricing "Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026?" at a 82% probability, up over the last 33h (+3.5 point change).

Volume (24h)
$111
Total volume
$94.3K
Liquidity
$0
Open interest
$47.3K
All-time range
74% – 89%
Our history
9 days
Resolves
74d

How this resolves

If the Federal Reserve announces an increase in the target range or target level for the federal funds rate after market Issuance and on or before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution rules as published by Kalshi — MeleeMarkets doesn't set or interpret these, we just mirror them.

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It is at 82% now. Pick the number you care about.

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Odds are mirrored from Kalshi's public market data and may lag the live order book slightly. Informational only — not financial advice. How we source data.

What do you think?

A reader poll, separate from the market odds above.

View all
Polymarket Economy
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Vol $1.2M today · $8.8M total · resolves in 10d
0% – 0.1pt
Polymarket Economy
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Vol $221.7K today · $13.6M total · resolves in 10d
88% ▲ +1.0pt