Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by December 31, 2028?
Vol $0 today · $700 total
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Vol $14.6K today · $568.3K total
Kalshi is 85 points higher than Polymarket (88% vs 3%). They resolve on different dates (Jan 1 vs Dec 9), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 88% | 3% |
| Change (24h) | +3.5 pt | +0.0 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $14.6K |
| Total volume | $700 | $568.3K |
| Liquidity | — | $113K |
| Open interest | $700 | — |
| Resolves | 27mo | 51d |
| Tracked for | 10 days | 10 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If the Federal Open Market Committee announces a reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate at least once after market Issuance and on or before December 31, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.