Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by December 31, 2026?
Vol $0 today · $800 total
Polymarket is 4 points higher than Kalshi (9% vs 5%).
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 5% | 9% |
| Change (24h) | +0.5 pt | -2.3 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $150 |
| Total volume | $800 | $3.3M |
| Liquidity | — | $141K |
| Open interest | $792 | — |
| Resolves | 64d | 64d |
| Tracked for | 19 days | 19 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If the Federal Open Market Committee announces a reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate at least once after market Issuance and on or before December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.