Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by December 31, 2026?
Vol $309 today · $800 total
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
Vol $65.2K today · $1.2M total
Polymarket is 11 points higher than Kalshi (16% vs 5%). Polymarket trades about 211.1× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 5% | 16% |
| Change (24h) | +2.0 pt | +0.0 pt |
| Volume today | $309 | $65.2K |
| Total volume | $800 | $1.2M |
| Liquidity | — | $92.6K |
| Open interest | $792 | — |
| Resolves | 65d | 65d |
| Tracked for | 19 days | 11 hours |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If the Federal Open Market Committee announces a reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate at least once after market Issuance and on or before December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.