Polymarket vs. Kalshi
Compare markets
See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be out as HHS Secretary before Jan 1, 2029?
Vol $0 today · $0 total
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Vol $55.9K today · $819.6K total
Kalshi is 40 points higher than Polymarket (75% vs 36%). They resolve on different dates (Jan 1 vs Jan 1), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 75% | 36% |
| Change (24h) | -0.5 pt | +0.0 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $55.9K |
| Total volume | $0 | $819.6K |
| Liquidity | — | $72.2K |
| Open interest | — | — |
| Resolves | 27mo | 65d |
| Tracked for | 19 days | 2 hours |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leaves as HHS Secretary before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Share this comparison
Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.