Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Wales announce an independence referendum before 2030?
Vol $0 today · $803 total
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?
Vol $23.9K today · $46.6K total
Kalshi is 9 points higher than Polymarket (28% vs 19%). They resolve on different dates (Jan 1 vs Oct 20), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 28% | 19% |
| Change (24h) | +0.5 pt | +7.5 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $23.9K |
| Total volume | $803 | $46.6K |
| Liquidity | — | $41.1K |
| Open interest | $7 | — |
| Resolves | 39mo | 8h |
| Tracked for | 10 days | 18 hours |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If Wales agrees to or announces a formal decision by the UK Government, UK Parliament, or a legally authorized Welsh authority to hold a referendum on Welsh independence after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
Alberta is scheduled to hold a provincial referendum on October 19, 2026. Question 10 asks: "Should Alberta remain a province in Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?" For the purposes of this market, "Remain" refers to the option that Alberta should remain a province in Canada, and "Leave" refers to the option that the Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on separation. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Remain" and "Leave" on Question 10. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Remain" and "Leave". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast on Question 10. If "Leave" receives more valid votes than "Remain", this market will resolve to "Leave wins". If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If "Remain" and "Leave" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Remain <20%". This market will resolve based on the resul…
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.