Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Itamar Ben-Gvir is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?
Vol $644 today · $843 total
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Vol $174.5K today · $2.2M total
Kalshi is 13 points higher than Polymarket (13% vs 0%). Polymarket trades about 270.9× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Oct 28 vs Oct 28), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 13% | 0% |
| Change (24h) | +6.5 pt | -0.1 pt |
| Volume today | $644 | $174.5K |
| Total volume | $843 | $2.2M |
| Liquidity | — | $242.1K |
| Open interest | $681 | — |
| Resolves | 49mo | 2h |
| Tracked for | 18 days | 18 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If it is reported by The Times of Israel after Issuance and before Oct 28, 2030 that Itamar Ben-Gvir is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.