Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME Person of the Year 2026?
Vol $0 today · $11.2K total
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Dec 1, 2026?
Vol $549 today · $2.2K total
Kalshi is 4 points higher than Polymarket (8% vs 4%). They resolve on different dates (Dec 31 vs Dec 1), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 4% | 8% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | +2.0 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $549 |
| Total volume | $11.2K | $2.2K |
| Liquidity | $27.4K | — |
| Open interest | — | $1.2K |
| Resolves | 49d | 19d |
| Tracked for | 2 hours | 5 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed person, group, entity, or thing is TIME Person of the Year for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A listed option will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they/it are explicitly named as Person of the Year. Additionally, the following rules apply: If multiple people are explicitly named person of the year, both people will be considered TIME Person of the Year. If the TIME Person of the Year is a concept, group or thing, a person may still be considered Person of the Year if they are also explicitly named person of the year, or if they are directly associated with the concept, group or thing named as person of the Year and are pictured on any official TIME cover announcing the Person of the Year. For example, in 2025 when TIME Person of the Year was “Architects of AI” the option for Sam Altman would have resolved to “Yes” as he was associated with the concept and is pictured on the Cover. However, if Sam Altman were Person of the Year, and ChatGPT was shown on the cover, this would not qualify for ChatGPT because ChatGPT is not a person. If the TIME Person of the Year is a specific concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. artificial intelligence), listed concepts or entities will be considered Person of the Year only if they are synonymous with the announced TIME Person of the Year. For example, if ChatGP…
Kalshi
If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.