Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Kalshi is 9 points higher than Polymarket (17% vs 8%). Polymarket trades about 430.4× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 8% | 17% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | +0.5 pt |
| Volume today | $56.5K | $131 |
| Total volume | $3.8M | $13.3K |
| Liquidity | $199.5K | — |
| Open interest | — | $6.5K |
| Resolves | 14mo | 14mo |
| Tracked for | 26 hours | 35 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Kalshi
If the WHO identifies any disease as a pandemic after issuance and by Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.