Polymarket vs. Kalshi
Compare markets
See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31, 2027?
Vol $0 today · $0 total
Polymarket is 21 points higher than Kalshi (35% vs 14%).
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 35% | 14% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | -0.5 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $336 |
| Total volume | $0 | $13K |
| Liquidity | $1.3K | — |
| Open interest | — | $6.5K |
| Resolves | 14mo | 14mo |
| Tracked for | 2 hours | 32 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war. A qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so. Once a qualifying referendum has been scheduled, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
If the WHO identifies any disease as a pandemic after issuance and by Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Share this comparison
Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.