Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Gavin Newsom announce a run for President of the United States before Mar 1, 2027?
Vol $0 today · $601 total
Will Marion Maréchal win the 2027 French presidential election?
Vol $12.7K today · $995.1K total
Kalshi is 27 points higher than Polymarket (27% vs 0%). They resolve on different dates (Mar 1 vs Apr 19), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 27% | 0% |
| Change (24h) | -0.5 pt | +0.0 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $12.7K |
| Total volume | $601 | $995.1K |
| Liquidity | — | $157.5K |
| Open interest | $601 | — |
| Resolves | 4mo | 6mo |
| Tracked for | 15 days | 18 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If Gavin Newsom has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Mar 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.