Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will the Republican Party win the 2030 Texas Senate race?
Vol $0 today · $0 total
Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
Vol $38K today · $1.6M total
Kalshi is 73 points higher than Polymarket (75% vs 2%). They resolve on different dates (Nov 5 vs Nov 3), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 75% | 2% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | -0.5 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $38K |
| Total volume | $0 | $1.6M |
| Liquidity | — | $140.2K |
| Open interest | — | — |
| Resolves | 61mo | — |
| Tracked for | 8 hours | 10 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If the person sworn in to the Class I Senate seat of Texas pursuant to the November 5, 2030 election is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027. A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.