Polymarket vs. Kalshi

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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.

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Polymarket

Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

5% – 0.3pt

Vol $376 today · $361.2K total

Market B

Possibly the same event, on the other platform

Kalshi Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035? 17% Kalshi Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030? 33%

Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.