Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Jensen Huang leave as Nvidia CEO before Jan 1, 2029?
Vol $1.6K today · $2.2K total
Kalshi is 39 points higher than Polymarket (48% vs 10%). Polymarket trades about 50.7× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Jan 1 vs Jan 1), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 48% | 10% |
| Change (24h) | +32.5 pt | -7.0 pt |
| Volume today | $1.6K | $83.4K |
| Total volume | $2.2K | $83.4K |
| Liquidity | — | $41.8K |
| Open interest | $1.9K | — |
| Resolves | 26mo | 53d |
| Tracked for | 9 days | 3 hours |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Kalshi
If the CEO of NVIDIA Corporation has announced, or it has been announced on their behalf, that they have left their position as CEO after issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jensen or Lori Huang file for divorce or announce their definitive intention to divorce by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement from either Lori or Jensen Huang, or their official authorized representatives, of their definitive intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when or whether the divorce ultimately occurs. Announcements that they are considering or open to a divorce will not qualify. The resolution source will be statements from Jensen Huang and/or Lori Huang, and their representatives, as well as relevant court records; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.