Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by March 31, 2027?
Vol $22.9K today · $21.8K total
Polymarket is 89 points higher than Kalshi (100% vs 11%). Polymarket trades about 571.4× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Apr 1 vs Dec 31), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 100% | 11% |
| Change (24h) | +50.0 pt | +0.0 pt |
| Volume today | $22.9K | $40 |
| Total volume | $21.8K | $8.7K |
| Liquidity | $81.4K | — |
| Open interest | — | $4.6K |
| Resolves | 5mo | 14mo |
| Tracked for | 28 hours | 19 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "return" is defined as Flávio Bolsonaro physically entering the terrestrial territory of Brazil. Whether or not Bolsonaro enters Brazilian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. If it is confirmed that Flávio Bolsonaro was present in the terrestrial territory of Brazil at the time of market creation, this market will resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Kalshi
If the WHO identifies any disease as a pandemic after issuance and by Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.