Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by December 31, 2026?
Vol $55.4K today · $55.4K total
Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026?
Vol $4.9K today · $130.3K total
Polymarket is 17 points higher than Kalshi (100% vs 83%). Polymarket trades about 11.4× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 100% | 83% |
| Change (24h) | +50.0 pt | +4.5 pt |
| Volume today | $55.4K | $4.9K |
| Total volume | $55.4K | $130.3K |
| Liquidity | $60.8K | — |
| Open interest | — | $72K |
| Resolves | 64d | 64d |
| Tracked for | 29 hours | 19 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "return" is defined as Flávio Bolsonaro physically entering the terrestrial territory of Brazil. Whether or not Bolsonaro enters Brazilian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. If it is confirmed that Flávio Bolsonaro was present in the terrestrial territory of Brazil at the time of market creation, this market will resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Kalshi
If the Federal Reserve announces an increase in the target range or target level for the federal funds rate after market Issuance and on or before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.