Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?
Vol $4.3K today · $271.7K total
Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026?
Vol $694 today · $125.9K total
Polymarket is 19 points higher than Kalshi (97% vs 78%). Polymarket trades about 6.2× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 97% | 78% |
| Change (24h) | -1.6 pt | -1.5 pt |
| Volume today | $4.3K | $694 |
| Total volume | $271.7K | $125.9K |
| Liquidity | $6.3K | — |
| Open interest | — | $68.9K |
| Resolves | 65d | 65d |
| Tracked for | 21 hours | 18 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if predict.fun officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from predict.fun (https://predict.fun/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Kalshi
If the Federal Reserve announces an increase in the target range or target level for the federal funds rate after market Issuance and on or before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.