Polymarket vs. Kalshi
Compare markets
See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Natalia Kiselova win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election?
Vol $0 today · $486 total
Will anyone win the next French presidential election in the first round?
Vol $0 today · $9.9K total
Kalshi is 3 points higher than Polymarket (3% vs 0%). They resolve on different dates (Oct 25 vs Apr 18), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 0% | 3% |
| Change (24h) | -0.1 pt | -1.5 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $0 |
| Total volume | $486 | $9.9K |
| Liquidity | — | — |
| Open interest | — | $3.2K |
| Resolves | — | 18mo |
| Tracked for | 27 hours | 7 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bulgaria on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
Kalshi
If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the next French presidential election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.