Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?
Vol $99.2K today · $1M total
Will Liberal Democratic Party win the next Japanese general election?
Vol $0 today · $0 total
Kalshi is 12 points higher than Polymarket (79% vs 68%). They resolve on different dates (Nov 29 vs Feb 7), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 68% | 79% |
| Change (24h) | +2.5 pt | +29.0 pt |
| Volume today | $99.2K | $0 |
| Total volume | $1M | $0 |
| Liquidity | $94.4K | — |
| Open interest | — | — |
| Resolves | 31d | 52mo |
| Tracked for | 19 days | 23 hours |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taipei as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Kalshi
If Liberal Democratic Party wins the next Japanese general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.