Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
Vol $235.1K today · $3.4M total
Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026?
Vol $9K today · $121.9K total
Kalshi is 62 points higher than Polymarket (80% vs 18%). Polymarket trades about 26.2× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 18% | 80% |
| Change (24h) | -21.0 pt | +0.0 pt |
| Volume today | $235.1K | $9K |
| Total volume | $3.4M | $121.9K |
| Liquidity | $72.2K | — |
| Open interest | — | $66.9K |
| Resolves | 68d | 68d |
| Tracked for | 16 days | 16 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between January 2, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify. Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces …
Kalshi
If the Federal Reserve announces an increase in the target range or target level for the federal funds rate after market Issuance and on or before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.