Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will anyone win the next French presidential election in the first round?
Vol $1 today · $9.9K total
Polymarket is 5 points higher than Kalshi (9% vs 4%). They resolve on different dates (Oct 25 vs Apr 18), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 9% | 4% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | +0.5 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $1 |
| Total volume | $0 | $9.9K |
| Liquidity | $1.8K | — |
| Open interest | — | $3.2K |
| Resolves | — | 18mo |
| Tracked for | 3 days | 8 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alexander Volkov defeats Rizvan Kuniev at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026, by KO, TKO, or submission that ends the fight in Round 1, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." A stoppage between rounds, including a doctor or corner stoppage, counts as ending in the round that has just been completed. If the fight is won in a different round, is won by decision, ends in a draw, or is won by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 7, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC. This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).
Kalshi
If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the next French presidential election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.