Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2027?
Vol $17.3K today · $26.5K total
Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026?
Vol $8.6K today · $111.7K total
Kalshi is 27 points higher than Polymarket (80% vs 53%). Polymarket trades about 2× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Jan 1 vs Jan 1), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 53% | 80% |
| Change (24h) | +3.0 pt | -2.0 pt |
| Volume today | $17.3K | $8.6K |
| Total volume | $26.5K | $111.7K |
| Liquidity | $54.9K | — |
| Open interest | — | $57K |
| Resolves | 14mo | 69d |
| Tracked for | 2 days | 14 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A ceasefire refers to any mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries, and which constitutes a general suspension of direct kinetic military engagement across the primary theater of the overall conflict. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause (including holiday ceasefires) will count provided they otherwise qualify under this market’s rules. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. Any calendar day (EET) during which the ceasefire is in effect (including the first day of the ceasefire) will count towards the 10-day total. The required 10 day period will end at 11:59 PM EET on the 10th day (i…
Kalshi
If the Federal Reserve announces an increase in the target range or target level for the federal funds rate after market Issuance and on or before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.