Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%?
Vol $0 today · $18.3K total
Will anyone win the next French presidential election in the first round?
Vol $0 today · $9.9K total
Kalshi is 4 points higher than Polymarket (5% vs 0%). They resolve on different dates (Oct 25 vs Apr 18), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 0% | 5% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | +0.0 pt |
| Volume today | $0 | $0 |
| Total volume | $18.3K | $9.9K |
| Liquidity | $49.6K | — |
| Open interest | — | $3.2K |
| Resolves | 40h | 18mo |
| Tracked for | 4 days | 4 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
The first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election is currently expected to be held on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the first round ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or mor…
Kalshi
If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the next French presidential election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.