Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Vol $147.9K today · $13.4M total
Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026?
Vol $693 today · $93.9K total
Polymarket is 9 points higher than Kalshi (87% vs 78%). Polymarket trades about 213.5× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it. They resolve on different dates (Oct 29 vs Jan 1), so they may not be exactly the same bet.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 87% | 78% |
| Change (24h) | +0.0 pt | -1.5 pt |
| Volume today | $147.9K | $693 |
| Total volume | $13.4M | $93.9K |
| Liquidity | $1.2M | — |
| Open interest | — | $47K |
| Resolves | 11d | 75d |
| Tracked for | 8 days | 8 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Kalshi
If the Federal Reserve announces an increase in the target range or target level for the federal funds rate after market Issuance and on or before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.