Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026?
Vol $1.3K today · $104.1K total
Kalshi is 76 points higher than Polymarket (81% vs 4%). Kalshi trades about 20.9× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 4% | 81% |
| Change (24h) | -0.2 pt | -2.0 pt |
| Volume today | $60 | $1.3K |
| Total volume | $148.1K | $104.1K |
| Liquidity | $589 | — |
| Open interest | — | $49.9K |
| Resolves | 71d | 71d |
| Tracked for | 3 days | 13 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Kalshi
If the Federal Reserve announces an increase in the target range or target level for the federal funds rate after market Issuance and on or before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.