Polymarket vs. Kalshi
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See where the two biggest prediction markets disagree. Pick any two markets, or start from the biggest gaps below: prices, volume, history and the resolution rules, side by side.
Kalshi is 22 points higher than Polymarket (27% vs 4%). Polymarket trades about 5769.5× more volume today, so its price has more money behind it.
History starts when we first saw each market, so a newly added market has a short line.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Probability (Yes) | 4% | 27% |
| Change (24h) | +0.2 pt | +2.5 pt |
| Volume today | $120.8K | $21 |
| Total volume | $16.3M | $21 |
| Liquidity | $320.7K | — |
| Open interest | — | $21 |
| Resolves | 64d | 64d |
| Tracked for | 19 days | 19 days |
Resolution rules: read both before trusting a gap
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Kalshi
If the head coach of the Michigan college football team leaves, or announces they will leave, before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Informational only — not financial advice. Odds are mirrored from each platform and may lag the live order book.