Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.10% before 2027?
Polymarket traders are currently pricing "Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.10% before 2027?" at a 5% probability, roughly flat over the last 4h (0 point change).
- Volume (24h)
- $239
- Total volume
- $16.4K
- Liquidity
- $11.8K
- All-time range
- 5% – 5%
- Our history
- 9 hours
- Resolves
- 63d
How this resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Resolution rules as published by Polymarket — MeleeMarkets doesn't set or interpret these, we just mirror them.
Odds are mirrored from Polymarket's public market data and may lag the live order book slightly. Informational only — not financial advice. How we source data.