Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Polymarket traders are currently pricing "Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?" at a 2% probability, roughly flat over the last 23h (-0.2 point change).
- Volume (24h)
- $76.9K
- Total volume
- $5.6M
- Liquidity
- $107.8K
- All-time range
- 2% – 3%
- Our history
- 28 hours
- Resolves
- 56d
How this resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto
If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
Resolution rules as published by Polymarket — MeleeMarkets doesn't set or interpret these, we just mirror them.
Odds are mirrored from Polymarket's public market data and may lag the live order book slightly. Informational only — not financial advice. How we source data.