Will the biggest earthquake on November 1, 2026 be 5.3 to 5.4?
Polymarket traders are currently pricing "Will the biggest earthquake on November 1, 2026 be 5.3 to 5.4?" at a 16% probability, roughly flat over the last 10m (0 point change).
- Volume (24h)
- $0
- Total volume
- $0
- Liquidity
- $964
- Our history
- 6 hours
- Resolves
- 3d
How this resolves
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on November 1, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog.
Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on November 1, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time.
Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column.
If USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on November 2, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered.
If the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints.
If no earthquake data for November 1, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on November 2, 2026, this market will resolve to the "Under 5.3" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.
Resolution rules as published by Polymarket — MeleeMarkets doesn't set or interpret these, we just mirror them.
Odds are mirrored from Polymarket's public market data and may lag the live order book slightly. Informational only — not financial advice. How we source data.