MeleeMarkets Live
Kalshi Economy

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2028 be above 1.25%?

Resolves Jan 1, 2029

80%chance
– 0.5pt over 40h
0%50%100%Oct 9Oct 19

Kalshi traders are currently pricing "Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2028 be above 1.25%?" at a 80% probability, roughly flat over the last 40h (-0.5 point change).

Volume (24h)
$0
Total volume
$563
Liquidity
$0
Open interest
$456
All-time range
72% – 88%
Our history
10 days
Resolves
27mo

How this resolves

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2028, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 1.25%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution rules as published by Kalshi — MeleeMarkets doesn't set or interpret these, we just mirror them.

Trade on Kalshi ↗ Compare
Alert me when the odds move

It is at 80% now. Pick the number you care about.

%
Embed these odds on your site

Paste this where you want the card. It updates by itself and links back here. Add &theme=dark to the address for a dark card.

Odds are mirrored from Kalshi's public market data and may lag the live order book slightly. Informational only — not financial advice. How we source data.

What do you think?

A reader poll, separate from the market odds above.

View all
Polymarket Economy
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Vol $1.3M today · $8.9M total · resolves in 10d
0% – 0.1pt
Polymarket Economy
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Vol $347.4K today · $13.8M total · resolves in 10d
88% ▲ +1.0pt