Kalshi

Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?

Resolves Dec 31, 2035

31%chance

– 0.5pt over 23h

Kalshi traders are currently pricing "Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?" at a 31% probability, roughly flat over the last 23h (+0.5 point change).

Volume (24h): $0
Total volume: $28.9K
Liquidity: $0
Open interest: $14.6K
All-time range: 29% – 33%
Our history: 10 days
Resolves: 112mo

How this resolves

If there is at least an earthquake of 8.0 magnitude with an epicenter in California or its territorial waters before Dec 31, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution rules as published by Kalshi — MeleeMarkets doesn't set or interpret these, we just mirror them.

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It is at 31% now. Pick the number you care about.

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Odds are mirrored from Kalshi's public market data and may lag the live order book slightly. Informational only — not financial advice. How we source data.

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Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?

How this resolves

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