MeleeMarkets Live
Kalshi Economy

Will the US default on its debt by Dec 31, 2027?

Resolves Jan 1, 2028

6%chance
– 0.0pt over 23h
0%50%100%Oct 9Oct 17

Kalshi traders are currently pricing "Will the US default on its debt by Dec 31, 2027?" at a 6% probability, roughly flat over the last 23h (0 point change).

Volume (24h)
$0
Total volume
$2.5K
Liquidity
$0
Open interest
$201
Our history
8 days
Resolves
15mo

How this resolves

If the U.S. Department of the Treasury announces that the United States Federal Government failed to make a scheduled payment on a Treasury note, bond, or bill; or that one of the three major credit ratings agencies designate any United States debt in any form of default, before 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution rules as published by Kalshi — MeleeMarkets doesn't set or interpret these, we just mirror them.

Trade on Kalshi ↗ Compare
Alert me when the odds move

It is at 6% now. Pick the number you care about.

%
Embed these odds on your site

Paste this where you want the card. It updates by itself and links back here. Add &theme=dark to the address for a dark card.

Odds are mirrored from Kalshi's public market data and may lag the live order book slightly. Informational only — not financial advice. How we source data.

What do you think?

A reader poll, separate from the market odds above.

View all
Polymarket Economy
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Vol $167.1K today · $10.2M total · resolves in 11d
14% ▲ +1.0pt
Polymarket Economy
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Vol $159.5K today · $6.2M total · resolves in 11d
0% – 0.0pt